Americas

As the US economic calendar thins out and Federal Reserve officials enter their quiet period ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, the second-quarter earnings season will continue to take center stage next week. Major companies due to report include Alphabet, IBM, Intel, Tesla, T-Mobile, Texas Instruments, 3M, General Motors, AT&T, Honeywell, GE Vernova, Charles Schwab, Philip Morris International, Danaher, Blackstone, Exxon Mobil, American Express, Lockheed Martin, and Verizon. On the data front, investors will assess July’s S&P Global PMI survey, June’s new home sales, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing data, and the Conference Board’s Leading Index. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to indicate another month of sector expansion, despite cost pressures from the Iran conflict, while new home sales may rebound after two consecutive declines due to rising borrowing costs. In Canada, June’s inflation rate, retail sales, and new housing price data will be released. Elsewhere, it will be interesting to follow mid-month inflation figures for Mexico.

Sausalito, California

In Europe, investors' attention will be firmly focused on the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision. Policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged following last month's 25bp rate hike. Markets will be closely watching the ECB's guidance for the remainder of the year, with investors currently pricing in at least one additional rate increase in September. Flash PMI data for the Euro Area and its largest economies will also provide fresh insights into private sector activity in July. In the Eurozone, manufacturing activity is expected to remain broadly unchanged, while the contraction in the services sector is forecast to ease. On the economic calendar, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is expected to improve to a five-month high of 18, while GfK consumer confidence is also seen edging higher. Other notable releases include German producer prices, Euro Area construction output and flash consumer confidence, Switzerland's trade balance, Russia's industrial production and producer prices, European car registrations, and France's business confidence. Central bank meetings elsewhere in the region will also attract attention. The Bank of Russia is expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut, while Hungary's central bank is also anticipated to lower rates by 25bps. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Turkey will announce its latest monetary policy decision. It will also be a busy week for UK economic data. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.9%, while regular pay growth is forecast to hold at 3.4%. Inflation is projected to slow to 2.7% to its lowest level since December 2024, with core inflation also expected to ease to 2.5%. Retail sales are likely to have risen by a more modest 0.2% following stronger gains previously. Other key releases include the CBI Business Optimism Index, CBI Industrial Trends Orders, GfK consumer confidence, and the flash PMI surveys. On the political front, Andy Burnham will take office as prime minister on Monday. Meanwhile on the earnings front, Ryanair, Banco Santander, Iberdrola, UniCredit, Equinor, TotalEnergies, SAP, BNP Paribas, Thales, Nestle and VW are due to report quarterly results.

Frankfurt, Germany

In China, there are no major economic releases scheduled for next week, although the People's Bank of China is widely expected to leave its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. In Japan, investors will focus on June trade data, which are expected to show stronger growth in both exports and imports alongside a narrowing trade deficit. National CPI figures are also due, with the annual core inflation rate projected to accelerate to 1.6%. Meanwhile, the preliminary S&P Global PMIs are expected to point to a modest slowdown in manufacturing activity. Flash manufacturing and services PMI surveys for July will also be released for India and Australia. In Australia, attention will additionally turn to the June labour market report, with employment expected to have increased by 15,000 and the unemployment rate forecast to remain unchanged at 4%. Elsewhere in the region, trade data are due from New Zealand, Malaysia, and Thailand, while inflation reports will be released in New Zealand, Hong Kong, and Singapore. South Korea is scheduled to publish advance estimates of second-quarter GDP, and Taiwan will report its June unemployment rate. Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia will announce its latest monetary policy decision after raising its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by a cumulative 50 basis points in June to 5.75% in an effort to support the rupiah.

Tokyo, Japan