중국 - 복합 구매관리자지수(PMI)

The Caixin China General Composite PMI increased to 53.2 in November 2019 from 52.0 in the prior month. The latest reading pointed to the strongest expansion in the private sector since February last year, as manufacturing activities rose the most in near three years (PMI at 51.8 vs 51.7 in October), while services output growth slowed to a 7-month low (PMI at 53.5 vs 51.1 in October). New order advanced markedly; overseas sales went up modestly; and the job creation rate increased slightly. Meantime, outstanding business growth eased to three-month low. On the price front, input cost inflation advanced at a modest pace; and output prices increased for the third consecutive month. Finally, confidence remained subdued, with the overall level of positive sentiment edging down since October.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI inched higher to 52.0 in October 2019, the highest since April, from 51.9 in a month earlier. The manufacturing sector expanded the most since February 2017 (PMI at 51.7 vs 51.0 in September), while services growth was at 8-month low (PMI at 51.1 vs 51.3). New order growth was unchanged from September's 19-month high, while new export business increased for the first time in three months. Meanwhile, employment fell slightly after back-to-back monthly increases, with unfinished workloads accumulating at the fastest rate since March 2011. On the price front, average input costs faced by Chinese firms continued to rise, while output charges rose marginally for the second month in a row. Finally, the level of positive sentiment improved. “China’s economy continued to recover in general in October, thanks chiefly to the performance of the manufacturing sector,” said Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.9 in September 2019, the highest in five months, from 51.6 in the previous month. The manufacturing sector expanded by the most since February 2018 (PMI at 51.4 vs 50.4 in August), while services activity growth slowed unexpectedly to a seven-month low (PMI at 51.3 vs 52.1). Total new orders increased at the steepest pace since February 2018, despite a decline in new work from abroad, and employment grew the most since January 2013. At the same time, unfinished workloads increased at the fastest rate for nearly one-and-a-half years, signalling pressure on the operating capacity of Chinese firms. On the price front, cost burdens were up at the quickest pace since November 2018. Finally, business confidence regarding the 12-month outlook for activity weakened to a three-month low.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.6 in August 2019, the highest in four months, from 50.9 in the previous month. Services growth was at three-month high (PMI at 52.1 vs 51.6 in July) and manufacturing production expanded for the first time since May (PMI at 50.4 vs 49.9 in July). Total new order increased the most in four months and the pace of job creation was the fastest since January 2015. In terms of prices, input costs rose at the softest rate for seven months while output prices declined. Finally, Chinese firms were generally optimistic that output would increase over the next year.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 50.9 in July 2019 from 50.6 in the previous month. Manufacturing output remained in contraction territory (PMI at 49.9 vs 49.4 in June), while services growth slowed to a five-month low (PMI at 51.6 vs 52.0). Total new orders expanded at a faster, albeit still modest, rate during July; and export sales advanced for the second time in three months. Meantime, employment fell for the third month in a row, with backlogs of works rising further. On the price front, average input prices continued to increase at a modest pace, while prices charged by Chinese businesses fell for the first time in six months. Lastly, sentiment improved to a three-month high. "In general, China’s economy showed signs of recovery in July, thanks to large-scale tax and fee cuts, as well as ongoing support from monetary policy and government-driven infrastructure investment," Zhengsheng Zhong, economist at CEBM Group said.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI declined to 50.6 in June 2019, the lowest reading since October 2018, from 51.5 in the previous month. Services growth slowed to a four-month low (PMI at 52.0 vs 52.7 in May) while manufacturing output shrank for the first time since February (PMI at 49.4 vs 50.2). New order growth slowed, with new export orders dropping again and employment declining for the second month in a row. Price pressures remained historically subdued in June. Lastly, sentiment weakened to a record-low for the second consecutive month. “The conflict between China and the US impacted business confidence rather heavily. Although its impact on exports hasn’t been fully reflected in the short-run, the longer term situation doesn’t look optimistic. Future government policies to stabilize economic growth are likely to focus on new types of infrastructure, consumption and high-quality manufacturing.” Zhengsheng Zhong, economist at CEBM Group said.