Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 






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03/11/2020 실제 이전 예측치 예상
03:30 AM
AU
호주중앙은행 기준금리 결정 0.1% 0.25% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 AM
TR
인플레이션 율 (연간) OCT 11.89% 11.75% 11.9% 11.5%
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer 연설
11:00 AM
BR
BCB Copom 회의록
12:00 PM
MX
기업신뢰지수 OCT 41.5 40.7 ® 41
03:00 PM
US
공장재수주(MoM) SEP 1.1% 0.6% ® 1% 0.6%
04:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank 구애 연설
06:00 PM
BR
무역수지 OCT $5.5B $6.2B $6.1B $6B
06:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer 연설
09:30 PM
US
API 원유 재고 변화 OCT/30 -8.01M 4.577M 1.964M
10:00 PM
AU
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) 최종 OCT 53.7 50.8 53.8
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ 통화 정책 회의 분
US
대통령 선거
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
04/11/2020 실제 이전 예측치 예상
12:30 AM
AU
소매 판매 (월간) 최종 SEP -1.1% -4% -1.5% -1.5%
01:45 AM
CN
Caixin 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) OCT 56.8 54.8 54
08:00 AM
ES
실업률 변화 OCT 49.6K -26.3K 65K
08:15 AM
ES
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) OCT 41.4 42.4 40 40.6
08:45 AM
IT
IHS Markit 서비스 PMI OCT 46.7 48.8 47 46.6
08:50 AM
FR
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) 최종 OCT 46.5 47.5 46.5 46.5
08:55 AM
DE
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) 최종 OCT 49.5 50.6 48.9 48.9
09:00 AM
EA
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) 최종 OCT 46.9 48 46.2 46.2
09:30 AM
GB
Markit / CIPS UK Services PMI Final OCT 51.4 56.1 52.3 52.3
12:00 PM
BR
산업 생산 (월간) SEP 2.6% 3.6% ® 2.2% 2.6%
01:15 PM
US
ADP 고용변화 OCT 365K 753K ® 650K 590K
01:30 PM
CA
무역수지 SEP C$-3.25B C$-3.21B ® C$-2.6B C$ -2.6B
01:30 PM
US
무역수지 SEP $-63.9B $-67B ® $-63.8B $ -63.1B
02:45 PM
US
Markit 종합 구매자관리자지수(PMI) 최종 OCT 56.3 54.3 55.5
02:45 PM
US
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) 최종 OCT 56.9 54.6 56
03:00 PM
US
ISM 비 제조업 활동 OCT 61.2 63 62 60
03:00 PM
US
ISM 비 제조업 고용 OCT 50.1 51.8 52
03:00 PM
US
ISM 비 제조업 수주 OCT 58.8 61.5 61
03:00 PM
US
ISM 비제조업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) OCT 56.6 57.8 57.5 57
03:00 PM
US
ISM 비 제조업 가격 OCT 63.9 59 58
03:30 PM
US
EIA 원유재고량 변화 OCT/30 -7.998M 4.32M 0.89M
03:30 PM
US
EIA 쿠싱 원유 주식 변화 OCT/30 0.936M -0.422M
03:30 PM
US
EIA 증류 액 재고 변경 OCT/30 -1.585M -4.491M -2.023M
03:30 PM
US
EIA 휘발유재고량 변화 OCT/30 1.541M -0.892M -0.871M
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
05/11/2020 실제 이전 예측치 예상
12:00 AM
US
총 차량 판매 OCT 16.2M 16.3M
12:30 AM
AU
무역수지 SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ® A$2.1B
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun - 은행 - 서비스 - 중소기업 - 결정적인 OCT 47.7 46.9 46.6 46.6
04:00 AM
ID
경제성장률(QoQ) Q3 5.05% -4.19% 5.34% 5%
04:00 AM
ID
GDP 성장률 (연간) Q3 -3.49% -5.32% -3% -3.2%
07:00 AM
DE
공장재수주(MoM) SEP 0.5% 4.9% ® 2% 1.5%
07:00 AM
GB
영란은행 기준금리 결정 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC 투표 삭감 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
비오이 MPC 투표 하이킹 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC 투표 변경 없음 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
07:00 AM
GB
영란은행 양적완화 £875B £745B £825B £845B
07:00 AM
GB
통화 정책 보고서
07:00 AM
GB
MPC 회의록
08:30 AM
DE
건설 구매관리자지수(PMI) OCT 45.2 45.5 44.4
09:30 AM
GB
건설 구매관리자지수(PMI) OCT 53.1 56.8 55 54.4
10:00 AM
EA
월간 소매 판매 SEP -2% 4.2% ® -1% -1.4%
10:00 AM
EA
연간 소매 판매 SEP 2.2% 4.4% ® 2.8% 2.5%
11:30 AM
ES
소비자 신뢰지수 OCT 48.5 49.5 44.9
11:40 AM
EA
ECB Guindos 연설
12:00 PM
MX
소비자 신뢰지수 OCT 37.6 36.3 ® 36.1
12:00 PM
GB
Sunak Statement on COVID Support
01:00 PM
BR
Markit 서비스업 구매자관리자지수(PMI) OCT 52.3 50.4 51
01:30 PM
US
주간신규실업수당신청건수 OCT/31 751K 758K ® 732K 745K
01:30 PM
US
실업 수당 청구 4 주 평균 OCT/31 787K 791K ® 782K
01:30 PM
US
비농업 생산성 (QoQ) 예상 Q3 4.9% 10.6% ® 5.6% 5%
01:30 PM
US
단위노동비용(QoQ) 예상 Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ® -11.5% -10%
03:00 PM
DE
Bundesbank Weidmann 연설
07:00 PM
US
연준 기준금리 결정 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 PM
US
연준 기자 회견
09:30 PM
AU
Ai 그룹 서비스 색인 OCT 51.4 36.2 37
06/11/2020 실제 이전 예측치 예상
12:30 AM
AU
통화 정책에 대한 RBA 성명
07:00 AM
DE
산업 생산 (월간) SEP 1.6% 0.5% ® 2.7% 2.5%
07:45 AM
FR
무역수지 SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B €-6.32B €-6.7B
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax 주택가격지수(MoM) OCT 0.3% 1.5% ® 0.5% 0.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax 주택가격지수(YoY) OCT 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3%
09:00 AM
IT
월간 소매 판매 SEP -0.8% 8.2% -2.6%
12:00 PM
BR
인플레이션 율 (연간) OCT 3.92% 3.14% 3.9% 4%
01:30 PM
CA
고용변화 OCT 83.6K 378.2K 100K 110K
01:30 PM
CA
풀 타임 고용 증감 률 OCT 69.1K 334K 40K
01:30 PM
CA
정규직 고용변화 OCT 14.5K 44.2K ® 70K
01:30 PM
CA
참가율 OCT 65.2% 65% 65% 65.1%
01:30 PM
CA
실업률 OCT 8.9% 9% 8.8% 9%
01:30 PM
US
비 농장 급여 OCT 638K 672K ® 600K 510K
01:30 PM
US
실업률 OCT 6.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%
02:00 PM
CA
BoC 주지사 맥클렘 연설
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Schembri Speech
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey 구매자관리자지수(PMI) OCT 54.5 54.3 51.5 52
03:00 PM
US
도매재고 (MoM) SEP 0.4% 0.5% ® -0.1% -0.1%
04:00 PM
RU
인플레이션 율 (연간) OCT 4% 3.7% 4% 3.8%
07/11/2020 실제 이전 예측치 예상
03:00 AM
CN
무역수지 OCT $58.44B $37B $46B $42B
03:00 AM
CN
수출(YoY) OCT 11.4% 9.9% 9.3% 9%
03:00 AM
CN
수입(YoY) OCT 4.7% 13.2% 9.5% 10.5%
08/11/2020 실제 이전 예측치 예상
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ 의견 요약





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